Population Growth: A problem without solution?

Our generation is probably facing the toughest challenge in human history. The present world population is 7 billion while in 1950 it was only 2.53 billion. The socio-economic implications of this massive increase in population are huge as all these people require of earth resources for shelter, food and energy. The high consumption rates and therefore wastes and emissions have led to a crisis situation where the long-term consequences are unpredictable. Climate change, poverty and environmental degradation are all an effect of this population increase, therefore the only way to successfully tackle these problems is through population control. The question is how to achieve a sustainable level of population that is in accordance with the world’s carrying capacity. As Paul Ehrlich stated in his book The Population Bomb, it is either population control or race to oblivion.

History reveals two ways in which nations have seen (or tried) a reduction in population:

1) Enforce population control policies. The famous one-child policy of China is the best example. This has proven to be the wrong approach as families prefer to have a male descendent, causing a huge difference in the ratio between male and female populations, having huge sociological implications (i.e. a lot girls put up for adoption).

It is also worth mentioning that a lot of new extremist groups, like “The Voluntary Human Extinction Movement” that advocate non-breeding have arisen in western societies, attempting to influence policy makers and civil society.

2) Achieve stable population through development. As seen in Europe in the last decades, most developed nations have achieved a stable or even a fall in population as a result of development. As women are introduced in the workforce they do not have time to take care of a lot of children, and as middle class flourishes there is less need for families to have a lot of children to sustain their parents (as pension systems appear too).

The second of the two approaches mentioned above is likely to be the most successful manner to ensure a sustainable population. It is common knowledge that rich nations have lower birthrates than poor nations, therefore if countries with huge birthrates like Ethiopia (total fertility rate 6.2 children per women) manage to achieve a decent level of development it is very likely that fertility trends will change. It is estimated that by 2050 the global population will be around 9 billion. It is countries like China, Pakistan, Nigeria and specially India (with the largest contribution to population increase with an estimated addition of 570 million more people by 2050) that will make the change (UN Population Challenges and Development Goals Report 2005). On the other side, developed nations like Russia, Japan and Italy will see a considerable fall.

(Source: United Nations population division)

However, the problem of the development approach resides in the fact that in order for these countries to develop, they must experience a phase of growth in which they increase their economic activity. This can lead to increases in populations until they achieve the desired outcome (as the case for India and China, which are developing at a fast rate but also increasing their population disproportionally) thus boosting the global problems caused by population increases (pollution, scarcity…). So the dilemma is that the intended solution can escalate into bigger problems. Another factor to take into consideration is cultural and religious differences. For example, back in the 1950’s in Spain most of the population were devoted Catholics which were willing to have a numerous family as good Christians, but as the transition to democracy and a more neo-liberal economic system kicked in, a change in culture was visible, as families were having less and less children. Will countries in the Middle East and certain parts of Africa follow this path? It is a mystery for the time being, but as it happened in western societies, if women are accepted into the work force it is very likely that they will also follow the same path.

Below are some links related to the subject matter:

1) Hans Rosling documentary, in which he defends the theory that if all nations reach a certain level of development, world population growth will stop (at aprox. 11 million people)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1nvdeEi2mEc

2) David Attenborough, BBC’s famous documentary presenter talking about the issue

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dN06tLRE4WE

REFERENCES

– Feltham, Colin (2009), The Guardian, “An uncomfortable truth”, http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/cif-green/2009/feb/27/population-control-climate-change

– http://www.overpopulation.org/pop-sustainability.html

– United Nations Population Challenges and Development Goals, 2005,

http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/pop_challenges/Population_Challenges.pdf

Comments Off on Population Growth: A problem without solution? / 28 Feb 2014 por alvarohernandez
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